Navigating the Resilience of Turkey's Real Estate Market: A 2024 Forecast

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Dubai has just launched a groundbreaking initiative — the First-Time Home Buyer Programme — aimed at helping both Emiratis and expatriates step onto the property ladder. Launched by the Dubai Land Department (DLD) and the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (DET), this initiative is a key part of the Dubai Real Estate Strategy 2033 and the D33 Economic Agenda, setting the stage for a more inclusive and thriving property market.

Current data indicates that the Turkish real estate market will continue to grow in nominal prices over the coming years. However, it’s important to distinguish between nominal growth and real growth. While Turkey recorded one of the highest annual nominal price increases globally (about 46.4%), real prices have declined by about 14% per year due to high inflation. In other words, although property prices have risen sharply in Turkish lira, the actual purchasing power of these assets has declined. Still, nominal prices are expected to continue rising due to strong domestic demand and limited supply, while real price increases will depend on inflation control.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the Turkish government has shifted to tighter fiscal and monetary policies since mid-2023 to fight inflation. The official Medium-Term Economic Plan targets a reduction in inflation from over 50% to single-digit levels (around 9.7%) by 2026. Credit rating agencies have responded positively—both Fitch and S&P upgraded Turkey's ratings in 2024, reflecting improved fiscal discipline and growing reserves. These developments suggest that, if economic reforms stay on track, we may see a gradual decline in inflation by 2030, leading to greater currency stability and restored investor confidence.

On the supply and demand side, housing production currently falls short of meeting Turkey’s annual housing needs. Industry experts estimate that only about half the annual housing demand is being met, due to rising construction costs and fewer new housing starts. This supply shortage will likely continue to support property prices despite economic fluctuations. On the other hand, foreign demand peaked in 2022 but dropped significantly in 2023–2024 due to new residency restrictions and a higher minimum investment amount for Turkish citizenship (from $250,000 to $400,000). In 2024, foreign purchases accounted for just 1.6% of total property transactions, down from 3–5% in prior years. However, this demand is expected to recover gradually as inflation cools and the lira stabilizes.

Looking ahead to 2030, the Turkish real estate market is expected to remain strong due to fundamental drivers like a large, young population, urban migration, continued infrastructure investments, and tourism in coastal cities. If the government succeeds in reducing inflation to single digits, investors may enjoy both nominal and real capital gains. If inflation persists, price gains may remain largely nominal, offering limited real return for investors. Overall, the prevailing outlook is that the Turkish market will experience greater economic stability and stronger investor confidence by 2026 and beyond.